Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

That said, your actual point, I could maybe agree with. Said it myself, I at least see a proper chance now for a mid term reversal (up to a month, maybe longer). But for some reason, I'm more cautious than I ever was. To the point where I'm putting my declared goal, my holy goal, of unconditionally maximizing my coin stash (what rampion called the "land-grabbing phase") on the backburner.

My method, in the most general terms, is what I would probably call "pattern searching momentum trader"... meaning, I don't try to really predict trends, but I don't just follow them either... I try to jump onto them earlier than others, by also throwing in a bit of pattern recognition. Despite that, I don't give a shit about MACDs... or rather: they don't tell me anything important. The fast MACDs don't tell me with any kind of certainty whether a reversal is about to take place or not, and the slow ones confirm trends that I've already spotted long before.

What I'm getting at is: I'll wait it out this time. Not all in cash, hell no, but with a good share in USD still. My confirmation will come from a few 6h patterns I'm looking for, together with some volume metrics. The price chart looks okay, slightly more compatible with an impending upwards breakout rather than a continued decline, but the volume analysis doesn't look very good.

So honestly, I'm getting a bit tired of putting so much time into btc, that's why I decided to wait it out this time instead of hedging my bets by trading all the smaller swings before a mid term resolution. If it resolves upwards, fine. I'll buy in fast enough after I get a bit of confirmation. Not 580 already, like you seem to think, more in the 600 range. But it takes more than price action to convince me, volume should play along. And I'll take that hit to my coin stash if I must... I increased it by more than a fair share anyway earlier in this bear market anyway, so it's time I give back a bit to the market I guess. I'm such a saint, aren't I.