After Gox is gone, to get to $800 or to $400 we need less coins, as far as those 750k coins are out from trading, in other words support levels are much thinner in both ways.... It will be easier to manipulate the price now...
I expect much higher volatility from what we are used...
And current price is relatively high, as far as we got here thanks for Gox speculations and China, the only thing that holds us here is a memory that "this is cheap", but actually now, it is not cheap, relatively small dump of coins will get us down, back, when Gox was alive this dump wouldn't get us that low as we could "visit" these days....
If the market was rational, this would be extremely bearish.
the situation is extremely bearish
prepare for a long and slow way down (similar to 2011)
I remain bullish for the long term , but we will visit the low triple digits (maybe high double digits too)
before we Choo Choo again
currently I am @ 15% BTC 85% Fiat , and hodling even if we go down to zero
YOU are too extremely bearish to be taken seriously..... sorry about that.. but if we go down.. we are LIKELY not going to go down below $450... and we may not even go below $500... current bitstamp price is about $570-ish...
likely we will be going to the baby moon with the next week or two.. which is in the 750-850 range, and then within the next three to six months, we will be going to the $1500 ish arena...
After MtGox hack in July 2011, there was a "424242.424242" transaction to prove MtGox solvency. Can't lookup details who asked for that prove and how exactly it was proven.
Unless properly designed, this "proof" could be made by thief himself.
AH HA!!!!!! The thief himself could be reading this thread>>>>> gocha!!!...... The thief himself may be in our midst... .. .or the thief himself may be drinking pina colatas in the bahamas......
No, you are too bullish to be taken seriously. We will not be hitting 750-850 in 2 weeks.
My described scenario is much more likely to occur than BTC hitting double digits.. that is truly a pie in the sky prediction that is RIDICULOUS.....
So, anyhow, based on the news currently in front of us.. and NO dramatically new developments NOT inferred from the current news, I predict that it is much more likely that we will hit the $750 to $850 range than to hit anywhere below $450 (except for some possible flash crash). If we hit anywhere below $450, it is NOT likely to be sustained more than 4 hours. True that the $750 price point may NOT be sustained in the next couple of weeks... but in the next couple of months or so, we are likely to be sustaining more than $750 .. and likely higher than that BTC price points.
Let's revisit this topic in May or June 2014, and I bet we are closer to $750 than we are to $450... and really not much chance of double digits any time in between.. absent NEWS that was NOT anticipated on this date.. ... maybe .01% chance of reaching BTC double digits?
Surely, I am speculating as well.. and I am also betting my money accordingly into BTC on my expectations...
I think that you make some very good points, especially regarding a potential for volatility in the event that there is actually less capital invested and/or circulating in the exchanges. Nonetheless, I remain uncertain about whether the scenario is going to play out in the way in which you describe. At this point, it remains unclear about whether the 750K-ish GOX coins have already been introduced into the overall bitcoin circulation.
On the other hand, we have a large number of institutional investors that have likely been chomping at the bits to get into bitcoin; however, they have been holding off in their getting in based on December/January uncertainties about the status of China... and then February concerns about Mt. Gox..... NOW, the China situation seems to be more clear and the Gox situation is somewhat clarified and contained (and I would suggest sufficiently clarified and contained - even though NOT completely clarified b/c some of the story still does NOT quite add up).
In that regard, I stick to my guns with my earlier prediction of more likely moving towards the $750-$850 direction - and I remain betting my fiat into BTC accordingly - though of course, I have NO real insider information besides what I read in various parts of the BTC community.