In my opinion, I think it will last for a year because it will take more time to distribute the vaccines all over the world and to cure all of the COVID19 victims because there are a lot of things to consider like the price of the said cure and the assurance that it can be affordable by those countries and victims.
Many economists argue that the effects of the economic damage caused by the Corona pandemic are greater than the great depression of the 1930s. I think the recovery after pandemic effect will take a long time depending on vaccine discovery.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020Great lockdown causes reduced or even loss of business activity that affects the world economy. The governments of each country are struggling to mitigate a pandemic. Governments throughout the country are trying to provide direct support to individuals, companies and financial markets to survive.
Many also believe that the economy will improve in 2021 but the views of some experts are limited to outlook. Can be used as an illustration, but still risky to be used as a handle given the still high risk of uncertainty and persistence from the pandemic. In many countries data on the spread of the Coronavirus has not yet shown signs of stopping or even growing with exponential additions.
It looks like the pandemic will not recede in the third quarter and lead to a longer period of time. So that each country must prepare for the worst-case scenario.