...It's totally not a good look when you have peaceful protestors outside of the WH and you teargas / rubber bullet them to take a picture. Maybe the base will like the show of force, but that's not the way to convince independents and democrats to vote for you.
But yeah, we are very far out and things could change quickly. Time will only tell if this time is different for Trump.
Yeah everyone knows the way to get your base to vote for you is by encouraging rioting and doing nothing to stop it. Then when the president tries to stop it with The National Guard, you refuse and intentionally allow the rioting to expand and disband the police. Additionally be sure to use the riots as a biological weapon against your constituents, and also excuse that unless of course they voted for Trump, then in that case actual legitimate protesting is bad and kills grandmas. That is how you win hearts and minds.