Re: 2020 Democrats

Quote from: Spendulus on June 11, 2020, 11:39:38 PM

I seem to have noticed a bias in betting odds for US presidential elections, which I feel is the result of international "ignorant voting influence."

If you strongly believe that betting odds are "biased" then you should capitalize on them by betting against the bias.

Quote from: Spendulus on June 11, 2020, 11:39:38 PM

However here, maybe the dynamics is different. To check this, I went to the Las Vegas betting odds, figuring that LV odds were more US-centric.

https://lasvegassportsbetting.com/2020-US-Presidential-Election-Las-Vegas-Odds_P14398.html

Here you can see a trend in which Biden did seem to have an advantage, but that has now vanished.

Actually the reverse is true -- Biden has been the underdog up until this week. Its the first week his odds switched from a + to a -. This means betting on him pays less than 2:1, whereas it pays exactly 2:1 to bet on Trump.

For whatever reason, a bet on Biden in February would have yielded 20:1 odds -- now they are less than 2:1; that's quite a shift!

I think Trump was 500:1 at one point during the last election cycle.