the forecast for a rate of about $10,000 is very close to the truth, maybe something will change now after the halving, but it is immaterial. Halving is a purely technical event that will entail changes in the economy of Bitcoin, and the fact that people lose money is not connected with this event, this 95% rule is true for exchange trading. The scammers who do not borrow money, but buy cryptocurrency for their savings, will win.