Your miner's first submitted share can be diff-1, or in plain English the closest to hitting a block without solving it, and then it mines for twice the "projected" time and still never finds a block, on the other hand, your miner can mine for a year with the best share not being remotely close to a quarter of the difficulty at any given time, and then out of nowhere - it hits 2 blocks in a row!!. There is absolutely no linear relationship between your actual luck and the best share you submit, in fact, there is no relationship between your luck in hitting the first block and your luck in the second block.
Remember that POW has no record or memory of your previous shares, whether it's 1 or diff-1 it doesn't matter, it's like rolling a dice, every single roll is completely independent of both the past and future once.
EXACTLY!!!!
When I "hit" that block but didn't actually get it due to server issues, (sorry to bring up old shit, but it's relevant and I'm drunk) I had only been mining on the solo Pool for a few weeks and my miner had just been power cycled 13 hours before it "hit". So it's all a lottery and luck is what it is and apparently I have none bit I'm stimm here solo mining at 125th/s hoping to hit again and actually hit it this time now that we have a better server. Odds say it'll be 18 years for me to get a block but like I said I sorta got one without actually getting one after only a few weeks. (It was before the halving and I'm still salty and will prob be salty for a long time, bit I digress) it's all the luck of the draw it was my S9 that did it too, so even old miners with low hash rates can find something if it's your chance to be lucky. If I was to point my stuff at a pool it doesn't make squat so I'm hoping for a lottery win on the solo still.