Right now Trump's reelection chances are looking pretty bad. The real economy is in tatters, he isn't perceived as handling coronavirus well, and apparently his handling of the Floyd issue was received very poorly. (I though that he struck a pretty moderate tone in his speeches on the matter, and while I strongly oppose it, I thought that sending in the military against rioters would be popular, so I'm surprised that people seem to overwhelmingly hate his response on this.)
The even bigger issue is that the Trump campaign has seemingly abandoned reality and prefers to live in a comfortable fantasy-land. Rather than acknowledge polls they don't like, they call them fake news. Rather than deal with the fact that 13% unemployment is both terrible on its face and probably a big underestimate due to various counting issues, they tout the unexpectedly-low number as a rocket-ship recovery and act as though the Fed-inflated stock market means anything to the average person. The average person is likely to
increasingly be suffering economically as time goes on, regardless of what the numbers say. Rather than try to reach out at all, Trump focuses on appealing to his base. You can't improve your situation unless you realize that there are improvements to be made, and I feel like the Trump campaign is unwilling to find their flaws so that they can fix them. They should have the attitude of, "We got dealt a really bad hand and then furthermore made several mistakes, but we're still going to analyze the situation rationally and make the moves that give us the best chances of winning from here," rather than, "Everything is actually OK, and we can more-or-less continue with what we wanted to do and feel most comfortable doing."
At this point the betting odds give Biden something like a 52% chance of winning, and I think that this substantially underestimates Biden's chances. I prefer Trump over Biden, so it's disappointing. It'd especially be bad if the Democrats take the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, which looks possible right now.
Things can change, of course. The economy
in reality won't come anywhere near recovering by November, but maybe Fed action + more stimulus can make it look as though things have improved quite a bit. It's likely that the Floyd issue will be forgotten by then. Biden is a truly terrible candidate, and maybe he'll totally fall apart with Trump's help. But in November Trump is definitely going to be in a
much worse position than he was throughout most of his presidency.
The problem with 538 is that it's run by highly-biased Democrat-establishmentarians who don't
realize how biased they are, so they tend to make mistakes. The RCP method is also flawed, but at least it's likely to be flawed in a more neutral way. Best to look at both sites, plus the details of the individual polls if it's important to you.
Eh I'm not sure that was a moderate tone. Continuing to post LAW AND ORDER on your twitter doesn't typically evoke the feeling of moderate, it reminds me of a law and order conservative. But his speeches may have had a different tone.
Sending in the military/national guard would typically be more popular -- but it's the way you do it which is the problem. The guy wanted to take a photo op in front of the church in D.C and tear gassed peaceful protesters because of it. Not a good look in the least. If he came out and said something like -- I support the peaceful protesters and said that they have a right to protest and all that, and then said that he'd be heavily cracking down on those that are rioting because we will not let our cities fall to these rioters. There may have been a different tone on all of this, but Trump doesn't do that.
You're right when it comes to Trump and his administration (and campaign) living in a fantasy land. If Trump was to come out and say -- yes, our response wasn't great, but this isn't something that anyone could've forseen -- we're doing our best given the situation, people would be more likely to accept this.
Trump has to relate more with everyday people, as these are the people who truly put him into office. Those folks in the swing states (PA, Wisc, Mich) probably still don't have their jobs, and are mad that all Trump cares about is the stock market prices.
Stock market prices are great and all, but regular everyday people care about wage growth, more opportunities, jobs, etc. Give them the best shot at life, and prove to them that you're working for them, and you'll be fine.
I still think this race is up in the air. Biden is a horrid candidate as well and will be tossed around by Trump on the debate stage. Biden is leading in polls not because people are saying "I love Biden" it's more "I hate Trump". Who knows if that will translate into votes in November.
In regards to the 538 portion of things - Well yes, but they do a pretty good job (IMO) of rating the different pollsters and making all of the polls balance out. Using both is fine though, more just personal preference.