As a trader, the best you can do is find the most likely scenario based on the data you have and understanding the risk involved too.
Choose the best probable outcomes that favors you to avoid stories as rekt.
You are right, probability will always come into crypto trading because a lot of factor are responsible for crypto price movement which guide the output of trading yields. It is quite understandable that the force of demand and supply as well contributes greatly to crypto price movement but a lot of other unforeseen factors contributes to the force of demand and supply that's why every trader at some point have to the some probability work