Maybe his Monday Fiat arrived.

So what could happen Monday?  Probability could give us a hint in addition to price action.

I have had debates with Bitcoin traders about trading on weekends.  One postulated that because Bitcoin is the only financial instrument whose exchanges are open seven days per week that price should go up the most over the weekend with high volume.  Another observed Sunday there is a steady rise before the Monday/Tuesday pumps before a Thursday/Friday selloff.  The former is a logical anecdote; more hobby traders participating on the weekend because they have more time.  The latter is a good observation.

But are these ideas profitably tradeable?  Do the statistics agree and knowing them could we better time our entries and exits?

I broke down the data for BitStamp just using Daily Open versus Close.  Basically; was the day UP or Down?  To capture the data with the best relevance I used all days from 1/1/2013 onward.  So what was the probability for each day of the week to close UP?

Saturday: 47%
Sunday: 70%
Monday: 74%
Tuesday: 66%
Wednesday: 68%
Thursday: 55%
Friday: 57%

When you consider that during this time Bitcoin has risen +6100% the probability is skewed to the upside.  That means that even though Sunday and Monday seem to be the best days to go bullish is it wise to just GO on that day?  Probably not; unless the charts back it up.  What does stand out when considering the bias is the one day that fails to even break 50/50; Saturday.