⭐ Merited by stompix (2)
With that being said, after a second thought on the situation, I strongly believe that difficulty has most likely hit the top, for now, starting from the next epoch my guess is that we start consolidating to the downside for a few months (unlike I thought a while earlier for many reasons which I will talk about in the near future), the correction won't be major so if you have an S9 and pay 5 cents per Khw, it's impossible for you to become profitable again, however, the adjustment will be a small push in profit, meanwhile, I wouldn't buy any mining gear at these current prices.
I waited a bit before replying to this, to see what the trend is at the end of the targeting period and not be completely off from the start. Even if things are not really going the way I expected I still stand on my previous assumption that we might still see an increase even with the insane ROI period and not a small one.
And this would happen not because your math is wrong or your reasoning but it might because by people who have not the same reasons, not the same plan, and are not making their plans on their own financial power.
One of the things that made me think mining will go the same way as shale, not really caring about today's prices or even the future is the news about Core Scentific with their purchase of ~17 000 miners, those are companies that received funding from investors, they present a business plan, they fail, it's not their money they lose. In the shale industry there are hundred like these, not risking their own money and the 3rd mortgage on their house, these guys can keep buying and putting hashpower online even if it earns them pennies, not even talking about ever ROI.
With no serious price swings which would upset the balance too much, I would venture and say we're going to see at least 50% increase in hashrate based on the same price by the end of year.
So if you are correct.
the insane number below will become 1.5 times worse
lets use 1 s19 pro and 2 s19
they add to 110 + 95 + 95 = 300 th
watts. 3250 + 3250 + 3250 = 9750 watts +-5%. make it 10 kwatts for sake of easy math
so 300th x 0.0671 = $20.13 usd a day as per current viabtc earnings per th
10 x 24 = 240 kwatts a day
10 cent power = 24 usd loser
9 cent power =. 21.60usd loser
8 cent power =. 19.20. 0. 93 daily profit
7 cent power =. 16.80 3.33 daily profit
6 cent power =. 14.40. 5.73 daily profit
5 cent power. =. 12.00 8.13 daily profit
4 cent power =. 9.60 10.53 daily profit
3 cent power =. 7.20. 12.93. daily profit
2 cent power =. 4.80. 15.33 daily profit
1 cent power =. 2.40 17.73 daily profit
these assume flat diff and flat price.
2 s19 and 1 s19pro cost 5977 plus shipping and import taxes if they were in stock and they ship in oct. if you get a reseller in stock now they are about 8200 plus shipping and import taxes.
lets say you get all 3 for 8400 and they show this Friday . lets say you get around the import and pay only 600 vs 2200. you are at 9000 for the 3 pieces
at
8 cent power. 9000/.93 = 9677 days to break even
7 cent power 9000/3.33 = 2702 days to break even
6 cent power 9000/5.73 = 1570 days to break even
5 cent power 9000/8.13 = 1107 days to break even
4 cent power 9000/10.53 =. 854 days to break even
3 cent power 9000/12.93 = 696 days to break even
2 cent power 9000/15.33 = 587 days to break even
1 cent power 9000/17.73 = 507 days to break even
to be fair I used reseller prices for this week delivery
if you wait for bitmain gear from Bitmain and not a reseller the price would be 1/3 less (maybe)
still numbers are nuts.
and yet the diff rises
they add to 110 + 95 + 95 = 300 th
watts. 3250 + 3250 + 3250 = 9750 watts +-5%. make it 10 kwatts for sake of easy math
so 300th x 0.0671 = $20.13 usd a day as per current viabtc earnings per th
10 x 24 = 240 kwatts a day
10 cent power = 24 usd loser
9 cent power =. 21.60usd loser
8 cent power =. 19.20. 0. 93 daily profit
7 cent power =. 16.80 3.33 daily profit
6 cent power =. 14.40. 5.73 daily profit
5 cent power. =. 12.00 8.13 daily profit
4 cent power =. 9.60 10.53 daily profit
3 cent power =. 7.20. 12.93. daily profit
2 cent power =. 4.80. 15.33 daily profit
1 cent power =. 2.40 17.73 daily profit
these assume flat diff and flat price.
2 s19 and 1 s19pro cost 5977 plus shipping and import taxes if they were in stock and they ship in oct. if you get a reseller in stock now they are about 8200 plus shipping and import taxes.
lets say you get all 3 for 8400 and they show this Friday . lets say you get around the import and pay only 600 vs 2200. you are at 9000 for the 3 pieces
at
8 cent power. 9000/.93 = 9677 days to break even
7 cent power 9000/3.33 = 2702 days to break even
6 cent power 9000/5.73 = 1570 days to break even
5 cent power 9000/8.13 = 1107 days to break even
4 cent power 9000/10.53 =. 854 days to break even
3 cent power 9000/12.93 = 696 days to break even
2 cent power 9000/15.33 = 587 days to break even
1 cent power 9000/17.73 = 507 days to break even
to be fair I used reseller prices for this week delivery
if you wait for bitmain gear from Bitmain and not a reseller the price would be 1/3 less (maybe)
still numbers are nuts.
and yet the diff rises
the earning number above will be not 20.13 a day with free power but 20.13/1.5 =
13.42 with zero other cost which does not exist
11.02 with 1 cent= free power+infrastucture taking 6000/11.02 to 9000/11.02 = 544 to 816 days. to break even
8.62 with. 2 cent power/plus infra 6000/8.62 to 9000/8.62 = 696 to 1044 days
6.22 with. 3 cent power/ plus other cost 6000/6.22 to 9000/6.22. = 964 to 1446 days
3.82 with 4 cent power/plus other cost 6000/3.82 to 9000/3.82. = 1570 to 2356 days
1.42 with 5 cent power/plus other cost 6000/1.42 to 9000/1.42. = 4225 to 6338 days
I know there are stupid people that invest, but if you are correct that price stays at 9200 and diff moves to 1.5 x 17.5 = 26.25 diff
then the industry will collapse. The numbers don't exist for right now no less with a diff of 26.25
No-one has a true free power setup so large independent farms are between 2-3 cents at best.
this is :
power cost
gear breakage
salary
building