Indeed, that's great point phill,  you would include those under the "newbies" who make profitability calculation off by a good portion, really it's like slowing down when the traffic light is green because you can't possibly trust that all cars from the other roads will stop for the red light, it's common sense, assuming that all other miners run their gears at the same exact conditions as you are is plain stupid.




That's a nice read buddy, despite the fact that it could be off by 50% i tend to agree to many points.


So by July 2021 IF bitcoin price is at about $11,250 - 12,150$ hash rate should be 260EH or nearly double the current hashrate, sounds reasonable to me, but the price factor is CRUTIAL, taking their estimation of the average cost being 3cents per Khw, let's run some numbers.

S19         95TH  > $2150 for September batch > Makes $145 a month > ROI in 15   Months
S19pro    110TH  > 2900 for September batch > Makes $175 a month > ROI in  16  Months

The above numbers don't include pool fees, other operation and maitninace fees, it only takes powest cost of 3cents into account, these numbers are pretty terrible, assuming addition cost add 10-20% it will take about 18 months for these gears to ROI, 18 months is probably above their techincal lifespan anyway, and this assumes that difficulty states flat, it will be even worse with those miners who have FREE power keep adding more gears with 100% felixblity, with free power you ROI an S9 in 2-3 months, the incentive to mine at 0 power cost will always be there, it will only make thing works for anyone who pays a thing for power, even those 3 cents guys, let alone 4-5-6-7 cats.

The research is good, I wish it was done in the assumption that bitcoin price isn't going to increase, so if we have +100% difficulty and +35% price, if price is +0% then difficulty is +65% or about 200EH in a year from now.