A lot of people do not want agree that surviving in the market today requires every trader to come to terms that they are trading on probability and at every moment of the trade there are series of different possible outcomes.
I agree with you, the whole concept of trading crypto centers around making research on any coin that has a tendency to increase in price over time, making proper analysis and research can actually take you far but after that you just have to predict and take few leaps of faith because many factors can comes in that will be out of your analysis and obviously out of your control too so it all boils down to prediction and probability