Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I'm sure many here have areas of their life that they are looking to progress and are exceedingly tired of being chained to this whipsawing headfuck. I sure as shit am. I'd never be fully out of the game but I am extremely keen to not be so deep into it.
So I have been spending a lot of time speculating on the commonness of the above rationale.
That combined with the people who FOMOed in at 15k plus 3 years ago are very likely to make the road between 15k-25k kinda swirly and narrow.
Consider this script:
-Bitcoin slowly gains steam from here
-Over the next 3-18 months we see it decisively make a new high... somewhere between 20-25k. I dunno I am no technical wizard.
-The above scenario is kicking in pretty strong.
-We see a strong pullback.
-We drop under the current ATH again (19.5k), perhaps by a good bit.
That is the point of greatest pain. A LOT of people will be saying "Oh my God. I am going to lose 90% of this AGAIN."
They will sell into the hands of people who recognize what is happening (stronger hands).
Then over a fairly short amount of time we clear out all the balsa wood resolve around the ATH and we are ready for open skies.
This is what I see happening... and I KNOW it is going to hurt. A LOT. I believe this is the BOOS FIGHT. I think this is what I have to make my decisions for. And I should only sell enough corn near the new ATH to put myself into a 3-4 month medically induced coma.
Of course I could be wrong.
P.S On the other side of this? The hyper bullish version? We will also be seeing the biggest avalanche of capital coming into corn so far. There is a chance we hurdle past 20k so fast and hard we barely have a chance to blink. I think still many of the OG set will be selling at these levels, even if their sales are lost in the torrent of new buys. They will end up in the history books kind of like that guy who tweeted about selling at $30 because he wanted to lock in at least those gains. This scenario too (though I think MUCH less likely) will be difficult to live through. But I for one welcome that sort of difficulty.
I am NOT going to proclaim that anything cannot happen, but your P.S is the more likely scenario.
Every fucking time, HODLers are so worried about those wanting to get out, and they bought at $14k and they just want to make some profits, blah blah blah.
It's just not going to happen. The buys are way more likely to outnumber the sells.
Sure, of course, there may likely be some headfakes, and even several days or weeks of wondering which way she is going to go, but in the end, from about $17,250 to about $23,500 is a fucking dead zone.
Sure, no two exponential price rises play out the same way, and sure, we might get more head faking than we though was possible (including believing that the head-faking is real), but in the end, you should not be planning to sell large amounts in the deadzone... sure.. protect your lil selfie a bit, but the 2-3 more years of a correction or whatever from the previous ATH range is nearly pure scare rather than a way to really contemplate what scenarios are more likely and which ones are less likely.
Again, sure anything can happen, but seems ridiculous to be preparing yourself for less than 5% scenarios rather than preparing yourself for 45% scenarios, and sure that does not mean that NO preparation needs to be done for the 5% scenarios, but each of us should be attempting to prepare in accordance to the likelihood of the scenarios instead of attributing bad probability assignments to low likelihood events.
#DYOR
#YMMV
#BTMFD
# blah blah blah
nohomo