Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!
It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...
OK. So. We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed. I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!
You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.
So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.
And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.
In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?
If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.
where on earth is the money going to come from to go to 300000? in a few years.
If 50% or 60% of bitcoiners HODL their bitcoin, it does not take very much money to push the BTC price up.
And, sure of course, some people will likely want to sell some of their BTC along the way, so keeping the BTC price up might be another question, and that is why we seem to have cycles in bitcoinlandia...
Cycles are not anything new in bitcoin's more than 10 year price history; they are already historically seen and attempted to be accounted for in BTC's currently most relevant price prediction models.. namely: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.
...
... it is missing a factor that is key. The accumulated world's worth is 50 to 100 trillion dollars.
BTC at 20 k in 2017 means. about 20,000 x 16.8 million = 336,000,000,000 336 billion is a mere 0.336% to 0.672% of the worlds wealth
the 10 wealthiest people in 2016 had:
Quote
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2016/03/15/The-top-50-richest-people-in-the-world-5-reasons-why-they-re-successful-
1. William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2. Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3. Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4. Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5. David Koch – $47.4 billion
6. Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7. Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8. Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9. Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10. Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion
1. William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2. Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3. Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4. Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5. David Koch – $47.4 billion
6. Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7. Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8. Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9. Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10. Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion
this adds to 543.5 billion So you can argue if they get together and try to pump a coin to 20k they could.
But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.
The pump is harder.
4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth
I would argue that shift can't happen in less than 10 years. 12-18 months is a no go.
I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000
Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.
If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.
this is from another post.
the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.
it got close to .5% in 2017
I simply do not see it going past 1% or maybe 40-60k
Of course, you are entitled to your opinion regarding how much upside potential there is. I am not necessarily counting on $50k to $300k, but all of that price range is reasonably within the realm of possibilities for this cycle and perhaps even up to $500k, given some of the recent sloppiness in money printing nonsense.
I personally see any BTC price accumulation that goes beyond 6% per year as icing on the cake for me, so I don't have any major problem if an exponential run does not materialize in the next couple of years (there would be a lot of disappointed BTC accumulators/HODLers, I know), even if there does seem to be a lot of shit in place such as money printing and other irresponsible monetary practices to cause such exponential run in the coming couple of years from what I can see from the price prediction models and also the surrounding circumstances that we find ourselves in.