Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
That doesn't sound boring at all. It sounds idyllic and I couldn't agree more. When it happens, I'll invite you to one of my homes in the mountains in exchange for a visit to one of yours!
It's a deal. Seriously. It would be really fun to make this happen sometime in the next few years...
OK. So. We really just need the next stage of this bull flag to be confirmed. I do not hate a pullback here, but I LOVE continuation!
You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.
So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.
And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.
In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?
If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.
where on earth is the money going to come from to go to 300000? in a few years.
...
... it is missing a factor that is key. The accumulated world's worth is 50 to 100 trillion dollars.
BTC at 20 k in 2017 means. about 20,000 x 16.8 million = 336,000,000,000 336 billion is a mere 0.336% to 0.672% of the worlds wealth
the 10 wealthiest people in 2016 had:
Quote
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/variety/2016/03/15/The-top-50-richest-people-in-the-world-5-reasons-why-they-re-successful-
1. William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2. Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3. Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4. Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5. David Koch – $47.4 billion
6. Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7. Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8. Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9. Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10. Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion
1. William [Bill] Gates III – $87.4 billion
2. Amancio Ortega Gaona – $66.8 billion
3. Warren Buffett – $60.7 billion
4. Jeffrey Bezos – $56.6 billion
5. David Koch – $47.4 billion
6. Charles Koch – $46.8 billion
7. Lawrence Ellison – $45.3 billion
8. Mark Zuckerberg – $42.8 billion
9. Michael Bloomberg – $42.1 billion
10. Ingvar Kamprad – $39.3 billion
this adds to 543.5 billion So you can argue if they get together and try to pump a coin to 20k they could.
But 250,000 x 18 million is 4.5 trillion that is 8 or 9 times what the top ten people in the world have.
The pump is harder.
4.5 trillion is 4.5 to 9% of the worlds wealth
I would argue that shift can't happen in less than 10 years. 12-18 months is a no go.
I believe that the 12-18 month cap for a high is much closer to 50,000 not 250,000
Of course I am barring the collapse of the USA dollar as the world standard for wealth.
If that happens hell BTC could be worth 1,000,000 in ten years or less.
this is from another post.
the argument I gave is btc can capture only a certain % of the world wealth.
it got close to .5% in 2017
I simply do not see it going past 1% or maybe 40-60k
But there are some interesting assumptions in this idea from my vantage point. This idea seems to rely on the basis that wealth is a zero sum game. As in - value cannot be created, but has to arise directly from existing value.
But the market cap of bitcoin will not rise X because X value is put into it. It will rise Z when X value is put in.
Bitcoin is currently worth ~200 billion. How much money has to flow in for it to be worth 1 trillion? I do not believe the answer is 800billion. Similarly the sales would equal MUCH LESS than 200 billion if bitcoin was to fail and go to zero.
I think I might want to look at this thing the other way around...
I wonder once you take away Satoshi and Hal's family, what the distribution of the really big bitcoin whales looks like. For example are there only a very few people with say 100,000 bitcoin?
If so bitcoin would have to be a half million USD for people with that much BTC to reach Koch brothers level.