It has been 2 months since we provided you with an update on Bitcoin and some macro economic developments. This is due to the fact that Bitcoin continued its sideways movement in the month of June.

For a long time it seemed that this would also be the case for July. However, Bitcoin has started a strong final sprint to end the month of July very positively.
The last week of July, Bitcoin saw a price appreciation of> 15%.

Now that we are 7 months away in 2020, it seems interesting to us to look back on certain important events month by month, as well as our vision and analysis of these events.

In January, Bitcoin had a blitz start. The price rose more than 30% as the US and Iran were on the brink of war and the Corona virus surfaced in China. However, we mentioned that it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin could take on its role as a macroeconomic tool to absorb economic shocks.
Our analysis also stated that we needed a clear overrun of $ 10,000 before we could break the downward trend. This did not happen and was followed up in the coming months.

February became the month when the Coronavirus started to spread throughout the rest of the world. This was the time when financial markets suffered serious blows. It was our cup of coffee to see if Bitcoin could distance itself from traditional markets as an uncorrelated asset. This is why we never adjusted our allocation.
February was also the month in which central banks announced they would inject stimuli back into the market. We pointed out that this is positive for Bitcoin in the long term.

The month of March will go down as the month when the world went into lockdown and entire economies were shut down. As a result, central banks that took unseen measures to maintain the market artificially. Here we underestimated the strength of central banks. We expected a further decline in the stock market. The reverse has happened and stock markets worldwide, especially in the US, have made up for the full corona crash.
Where we were correct is that Bitcoin, as an alternative to the current system, would come out positive.
Bitcoin reached a bottom price of $ 3,800 on March 13. Today we clock at a price of $ 11,500. An increase of more than 200%. Even for Bitcoin, this is unprecedented.
We also looked back to 2008 where we saw the same pattern in gold and silver. A huge decline for precious metals in the beginning of the crisis followed by a huge price increase. Gold has now reached its highest point ever and silver also experienced a huge price increase.

During April we saw a continuation of the trend that had already started at the end of March. Namely a further revival of so-called risk assets such as shares and Bitcoin while the entire world was in lockdown.
The market had clearly priced in a worst-case scenario in which health systems would perish worldwide. As a result, a higher mortality rate. Except for a few exceptions such as Italy and Spain, this turned out not to be the case.
So we can conclude that the market was over-reacting to the corona crisis. Together with the injection of central banks, this has ensured that shares, precious metals and Bitcoin have experienced a huge price increase.
In April, we focused once again on the unparalleled characteristics of Bitcoin as a digital scarce commodity in a world of unlimited fiat money. We think this will become even more prominent in the coming years.

In May, the long-awaited Bitcoin halving took place, which halves the reward for Bitcoin miners. However, this became a non-event and its positive effect will only be reflected in the price in the long term. (which may already be evident)


Now that we have looked back at the turbulent past months, we can look forward again. Although it is impossible to predict the future, the previous months have shown that we can create a rough picture.

Corona is still growing in size worldwide. However, it appears to have little or no negative impact on the financial markets. The "promise" of central banks worldwide to continue to provide support seems sufficient for investors to have a positive outlook for the future.
At the European level, a corona fund has been approved containing 750 billion in aid to the affected countries.

For Bitcoin, I see the recent price appreciation as confirmation that the bull market has started. We expect the upward trend since Bitcoin's inception to continue in late 2020 and all of 2021.

Enjoy the month of August!

(These articles are always written by a close friend of me)