Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: If someone buys Bitcoin today, they'll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI.
by
xavier
on 04/03/2014, 00:47:09 UTC
I've been here since 2011 also. I have to admit, I think you're (OP) suffering from bear market syndrome.

Given where the world is going, I would not be surprised if we hit $1,000 coin again. Having said that, bitcoin will continue to be highly volatile, so we could well go down to $100 in the meantime.

RE: Ripple / Ethereum - these new coins may or may not be better than bitcoin, but bitcoin was the 1st crypto-coin and it will always have that 'first mover advantage' as a crypto-currency, as being the most heard of and used crypto-currency. Besides, the innovations offered by all the alt-coins, ripple and ethereum are not (yet) really substantial enough to cause people to drop bitcoin and move to something else. The innovation that satoshi created (bitcoins vs. paper money) is head and shoulders above anything added by any alt-coin.  Ethereum in particular has a long way to do. Ripple I am not so sure of and have not investigated fully (particularly as the source code was not available for a long time). However, the kind of scenario that would see bitcoin go alot higher would also drive the prices of all alt-coins higher. Even if bitcoin is superseded in the long term, it will not happen overnight and there is still profit potential remaining in holding bitcoin.

I have to admit that it is a little crazy to sell every coin. However, I have been in and out of BTC over the last few years (would have been better just to hold of course) ... so I know your feelings and motivations.

The market is always open however. The thing that worries me the most is if bank accounts are locked down (like is happening in Ukraine these past few days) it would become very difficult to get money to exchanges.

Perhaps I am naive but I still think the best days of bitcoin are ahead. Although I agree with you that I don't think crazy 3,000% returns are possible, I  still think it's feasible that bitcoin could go into the thousands of dollars again. That, and the possibility/probability that FIAT money may evaporate or be confiscated, keeps me invested in bitcoin.

However, if you're worried about bitcoin and would rather have something more historically stable, you can always buy gold instead. In the event of economic problems, bitcoin, gold and alt-coins will retain value together.