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I'm eager to see what's the country's GDP this second quarter. It's expected to be larger than first quarter's -0.2 percent. In an
article, another economist predicted it to be at a -6.3 percent while the succeeding two quarters are projected to be at -5.8 percent and -3.5 percent, respectively. Not good to see the negative there but it's still a recovery. Next year's growth is projected at 3.5 percent, 5.7 percent, 5,8 percent, and 4.5 percent for the first to fourth quarters.
Following up on this. The result is out and its worst than anyone has expected. GDP shrank down to 16.5% for the second quarter of 2020 and that means Philippines officially entered into a recession. This is a direct result of the strict and long lockdown the Government implemented in the past months. I just want to emphasize this -
Philippines was one of the earliest to impose lockdown and the latest to lift it. That means the Government prioritized the health concerns in the first two months notwithstanding its economic impact.
Previous projections are now out of the window and our economic managers revised their estimates. According to them, the country's economy is expected to shrink 5.5% this year (initial projection was 2% to 3.4% decline).
Not that I'm entirely surprised since everyone expected a further decline from Q1. The third quarter marks the period of "economic rebound" with the slow reopening of businesses but this recovery phase slowed down again with another two-week lockdown in the National Capital Region (NCR).
In response to criticisms about the Government not having a plan to handle the COVID-19 pandemic, this is not actually true. It's been there since March (start of lockdown) and its been laid down in the National Action Plan (NAP). There are four phases and we are currently in phase two.
I'm hoping this thread would not be derailed even more and turn into a Politics & Society type of discussion.