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Nothing can be challenged about gold as a store of value over thousands of years, and all the other applications it has today - but it is crucial that gold has been proven over a very long period of time (in human terms), while on the other hand Bitcoin has yet to prove its worth - and no matter the time we live where things are evolving far faster than 50 years ago, I think it will take at least another 10 years to see how Bitcoin will position itself in relation to already proven things like gold, silver, stocks, real estate...
When I say another 10 years, I mean a total of 20 years from the first block, because Satoshi himself said something along those lines when he wrote: "I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." How applicable this thesis is, given that Satoshi could not have foreseen everything that has happened so far, and of course what will happen in the future - remains to be seen.
Nothing can be challenged about gold as a store of value over thousands of years, and all the other applications it has today - but it is crucial that gold has been proven over a very long period of time (in human terms), while on the other hand Bitcoin has yet to prove its worth - and no matter the time we live where things are evolving far faster than 50 years ago, I think it will take at least another 10 years to see how Bitcoin will position itself in relation to already proven things like gold, silver, stocks, real estate...
When I say another 10 years, I mean a total of 20 years from the first block, because Satoshi himself said something along those lines when he wrote: "I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." How applicable this thesis is, given that Satoshi could not have foreseen everything that has happened so far, and of course what will happen in the future - remains to be seen.
Every day bitcoin has volume, this makes bitcoin more resilient, anti-fragile, and closer to the Shelling-poin of money.
As I said in my third post here onBitcointalk:
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Bitcoin is a huge bet but while I don know if in 10 years bitcoin would be worth 1 million or zero (or course I have an idea), I am absolutely sure that in 10 years every present shitcoin (all of them, but bitcoin) will be worth ZERO.
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Bitcoin is a huge bet but while I don know if in 10 years bitcoin would be worth 1 million or zero (or course I have an idea), I am absolutely sure that in 10 years every present shitcoin (all of them, but bitcoin) will be worth ZERO.
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Now two years have passed and bitcoin made incredible progresses in the right direction, while the fiat shitcoins have made horrible steps in hte wrong directions. Don't forget that the US Dollar is not 200 years old, but it is only almost 50 years old. You cannot consider the Dollar before the 1971 in the Gold Standard being the same as the Dollar after the end of Gold Standard, that was actually an hidden default.
So yes, we prety much agree on the 2030 date to state the successfulness of the bitcoin experiment. I just added an appointment in my agenda!
Bitcoin is already successful as fuck.
Sure you can set some measure in the future as do or die or as some kind of meaningful measurement, but who cares?
Bitcoin is still progressing, advancing and adding to network effects.
There are also a lot of ways that bitcoin success can be measured, and surely, I bitcoin is far along the spectrum of making progress whether we measure from two years ago, five years ago, or some other interval short of its 11.5 year to nearly 12 year life (whether we are measuring from the release of the white paper or the first block that was subsequently mined).
I'm definitely still considering this a (so far successful) experiment. Willing to re-assess that in 2030 too;)
Why not both?
I can concede that bitcoin is an experiment, and I can proclaim that with even a current status assessment bitcoin is successful as fuck.. maybe even more successful than what could have been imagined at previous prudently attempting to project forward viewpoints.
Of course, another assessment can be made in 2030 to measure where bitcoin is at... which I can also proclaim is a so fucking what? We will see it when we see it... bitcoin is already successful and who cares about 2030.. except just make sure that you have some bitcoin in case it catches on (which it already has.. hint.. hint... hint)...
