By the way, does "never ever ever reaching $20" = "Bitcoin is effectively dead, but just doesn't know it yet?"
In the first Internet bubble, we ran Downside.com, which predicted, based on cash flow, which dot-coms would die, and when. We considered a company dead when the stock was down 90% from the peak. At that point, the stockholders are dead, even if the company lives on at some low level in zombie mode.
On that basis, Bitcoin is dead when it breaks through $3.