I will have an early exit since I'll have to take big chances on bad cards (...)
If it helps, your chances of qualifying are next to zero, because of your bad average. By winning todays tournament, you can bring it down to 10.63 and would have the same amount of points as Improved/Steam then, if they fail to get any points today. Improved can only have worse average than you, if at least 22 players join today (unlikely) and he is the first to exit. SteamTyme would have to finish 17+ (I doubt we will have even 17 players today) to have worse average than you. And then you would still have to hope for the 4 guys in front of you to not get a lot of points, so all in all you qualifying would be a miracle

Sorry, if this destroys some of your hopes^^ Just play freely, go after all the super tight players and look to finish itm.
Just kidding, even without your fancy math I knew the odds are stacked against me. I lost my chances in first 4 tournaments which I played with house full of guests and zero concentration.