Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 2 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 21/08/2020, 16:42:11 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (2)
But, hey, considering BTC price bottoms, you had seen that PlanB tweet from yesterday about the 200Weekly Moving average? Dude posted it, below.


>>>>>ICYMI: #bitcoin  is nicely moving away from 200 week moving average. 200WMA is currently $6400, is increasing $200 per month, and has never decreased. Best of all, BTC monthly close has never been below 200WMA.<<<<

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1296005407983403008?s=21

Can't we have some assurance that the bottom is in (or at least the bottom keeps moving up)?  So, in other words, maybe we can feel a certain level of confidence that BTC prices are not going below $6,400... so even $3k or sub $200 is even more out of the question - into the rearview mirror... and with the passage of time, we can start to feel even more confidence regarding even higher and higher bottom BTC prices... because the bottom keeps moving up with the 200 week moving average, no?

Here's the chart from that PlanB tweet:



The bottom is something that is very slippery terrain for BTC, I think it would be pretty frivolous to say that we will never go below $6400 again, because just a few months ago this is exactly what happened. Of course, the x factor should always be taken into account - and in the last case it was the declaration of a pandemic that shook the entire world market - and we know that in the case of anything like that, the price easily goes down and more than 50%.

I would still take the price of $4000 as something that BTC can go backwards, but only if something very negative happens (say a big hack of Coinbase or Binance). Yet what interests me more at the moment is the percentage of correction after the next big bull run, because if we were to reach say $100k, is it realistic to expect us to fall to $20k? The past has shown that this is possible, will it be the same this time?

Seems to me that BTC investors who focus too much on the amount of the possible BTC falls and the BTC corrections in the short term or long term, have a pretty high tendency to either fail to invest, to sell way too much too soon and to underinvest.

So, frequently, even if there have tended to be BIG ASS corrections in BTC-landia, the more prudent and sound of strategies has many times been better to just HODL through the whole thing - and of course, on a personal level, I have never really had any problem selling reasonably small amounts of BTC on the way up in order to provide some potential insurance for long and/or large BTC price corrections and also perhaps providing some psychological relief during times in which BTC price is correcting more and longer than preferred.

Of course, the concerns for ongoing and likely inevitable volatility continues to be a bit more problematic for new coiners who are attempting to establish their position, but I still think that NOT overinvesting and having at least a 4 year time horizon including following some kind of DCA'ing can help a lot of newbies through their initial investment period in which their BTC holdings may or may not be in profits - but more likely to be in profits if they continue with sound and prudent ongoing accumulation of BTC - even though nothing is really guaranteed, either, now is it?  but we have had good odds in our favor with BTC, and the future continues to look bright too, even if guys like you, Lucius, seem to be overly preoccupied with negative BTC price movements and unable or unwilling to figure out sound and reasonably prudent strategies to profit from likely ongoing positive trends that are likely to continue to come to BTC (though not guaranteed, like I already mentioned).