So there's 6000+ coins out there. Look at the max supply. A coin with a large max supply and rapid emission of new coins will most likely never surge in value. This is because the worlds total capital is divided with so many optional coins. The larger the supply, the more capital it needs to spike in value. Even Bitcoin with a max supply of only 21 million needed massive amount of capital to get where it is now. So any coin with double that, will need the double amount of capital to get to the same place. So with so many options out there if you want good value pump. Look for something with max supply of only like 1 million. (which of course needs to have a utility too to stay in growing demand)
Going by your assessment, many here will miss it obviously. It is not always that way. I have seen coins in billions that did very well and had good runs. Let me illustrate this with
ONT (did over $10 with its 1billion total supply) and
Curio (less than $2 with just 2million supply) So, you can see that your theory isn't the norm. There are exceptions. I think it depends on what the project is about and hype too.