Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: This message was too old and has been purged
by
BlockChainLottery
on 04/03/2014, 14:40:38 UTC
Winning the lottery is very unlikely also, but someone has to win eventually. If you use random numbers, the very next number chosen COULD be it. ...

Sure, but you have to include the fact that the number space is huge. The number of tickets in a lottery are at least contained in a pool from which you know a winner is drawn. That is different than looking for a number in a huge range of integers.

Simple crude calculation:

2160 bitcoin addresses
2 billion computers worldwide1
3 million addresses checked per day on a computer2
2160 / ( 2e9 * 3e6 * 365 ) = 667e27 years

Timeline:

big bang       sun was born          now             sun dies       existing stars burn out   you finding k       all matter evaporated
     |-------------|---------------|--------------|---------------|-----------------------|-----------------|
     0                 9.2e9            13.8e9             19e9                 1e15                         667e27                1e34

Entropy is a bitch.