Post
Topic
Board Project Development
Re: [WHITEPAPER] Decentralized Bitcoin Prediction Markets
by
gwern
on 05/03/2014, 01:35:36 UTC
It might be better to use more standard terms... You can see a prediction market as a ensemble method https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ensemble_learning which weights experts (users) by their cumulative score (money) on a series of predictions using a proper scoring rule of some sort. This interpretation has been explored by a number of papers: http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%22prediction%20market%22%20ensemble