Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 11/09/2020, 19:24:14 UTC
@nullius you can indeed become rich but after around 200k contracts slippage and stophunting absolutely wreck my strategy so its gonna slow down from there, so i would be in no place to accept anyones money either way lmao.

Here is a case-in-point in which a trader might over play the odds from time to time, or miscalculate the odds, and then instead of being a sure deal, it only takes one out of 100 bets, then all of a sudden all of the profits have been lost, or some variation of that scenario, which ends up being a kind of martingale betting rather than strategic plays that are structured in such a way to always be profitable.  The trader ends up getting greedy.

A more reasonable way to lose all the value would be that each bet is prudent, and the odds are supposed to be something like 7/10 wins and for some reason, the streak will keep hitting on the 3/10 outcome, until the total profits (and maybe even principle) is lost - even if the trader might only be playing 1% each time, after 100 losing bets in a row, the profits have long been removed, and there is only so much principle that is left (bet size keeps getting smaller, smaller and smaller), but if a trader is only betting 1% each time, it will take a whole hell of a long time to completely deplete the trading stash, merely that the trading stash shrinks.

Many traders cannot stick to such a system of betting only 1% per trade when the actual amount keeps shrinking, so they frequently will start to bet larger amounts that does not end up being sustainable... especially on a long losing streak... gravitating into a kind of martingale betting approach, which is NOT sustainable.

Of course, there are some traders who stick to a more sustainable system, and they stack away their profits while keeping their trading stash reasonable, and even they might suffer through vary long losing streaks that cause the size of their bets to keep shrinking and perhaps causing them to question themselves in terms of the amount of profit that is even possible upon a win (because the trading stash had continued to shrink by so much on the long losing streak).

and its not usually actually 5:1 odds, i just gave that as example, in real life itd be much more slower and safer if i was trading with a significant amount of money than what i showed in that challenge thread

You did not show slower and safer, anyhow, as far as I can remember. 

On several occasions, you did not show your work, either... which surely is problematic if you are trying to get people to become confidence in your abilities to employ a sustainable and profitable approach to trading.