So, how can one honestly recommend investing into bitcoin as a hedge against a possible dollar collapse, as a way of becoming a millionaire, or whatever the "salesmen" are saying these days? It is like buying a ticket for a crazy lottery that does not tell its clients what are the odds and prizes, and may or may not be seeking to lose money.
Definitely, I appreciate you discussion of value and predicted value in terms of a lottery ticket; however, with all your smartness, you are certainly missing some essential points about bitcoin.
First: Bitcoin does NOT need to win the lottery or have some exorbitant pay off in order for it to be of considerable value. Actually, even if bitcoin maintains its value flat, it is doing a heck of a lot better than the dollar b/c the dollar is inevitably programmed to shrink in value due to dilution (too much expansion of the supply).
So, you go wrong in a couple of respects regarding your bitcoin/lottery discussion, the first, as referred to above, is the anticipation that some major payoff is needed in order for bitcoin to be successful.
Second: The other aspect that you go wrong is to expect that any investment in BTC has to be for a predetermined number of years. Markets have inevitably shown that investors are capable of playing their investments by ear and to go with the flow with whatever the investors perceive to be best to provide them with an acceptable return. ... and even though at this particular moment, bitcoin may be among the best of the long term crypto-currencies, yet if another and better cryptocurrency comes along, then certainly bitcoin money can be moved into that new and better investment. So bitcoin does not need to be the best forever, it ONLY needs to be the best for the moment. That expression .. ."dont let the perfect be the enemy of the good."