The odds are good for INTZ to not really take a gamble on it. MAD Lions are definitely the better team when it comes to recent match performance but then again INTZ are doing some things that sometimes upsets tier 1 - 2 teams when everyone least expects it. I'll go low on INTZ on this one just for those juicy odds since it's no doubt that they'll get outplayed early - mid game by MAD Lions, but it's still worth a gamble due to the comeback potential of the underdogs on crucial teamfights.
Basically, I agree with you. The funny thing is that mad lions is a bit like this team. Also sometimes there is an awful lot of chaos in their game.
Now we have a failure. Mad won but I think INIT was close. They had a loss in the rally all the time, but in the team fights they should win 5v5. Urgot 10/1 would win this game. Alistar in the last action of the match was caught like a total noob and buried the score probably already before. The support was very weak.
Anyway, the match was not one-sided and the odds on + 5.5 or even 10.5 were also solid.