Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Anyone know a dice game that is actually fair?
by
Saint-loup
on 26/09/2020, 08:51:23 UTC
I know they all have an edge. I am talking about a game where the stated odds are 49.7% meaning a house edge on of 0.3%. In that environment what are the odds of losing 11 in a row? 17 in a row? or 6 out of 7 bets repeatedly?

I should preface this with that I did have a couple incredible runs on this game in the past. Variance just catching up?
CMIIW but it's the union of all the 6 out of 7 losing bets.
That is to say
LLLLLLW
LLLLLWL
LLLLWLL
LLLWLLL
LLWLLLL
LWLLLLL
WLLLLLL

The probability to get LLLLLLW is (50.3%)6x49.7%=0.8%
The probability to get LLLLLWL is (50.3%)5x49.7%x50.3%=0.8%
And it's the same for the other 5 other combinations.

So the chances to get 6 losing bets out of 7 are 0.8%+0.8%+0.8%+0.8%+0.8%+0.8%+0.8%=7x0.8%=5.6%