As far as progress reports are concerned, I'll give 80% chance that the fight will happen.

We have to take note that Pacquiao is eyeing to share the majority of his profit on this fight to the charity and McGregor is a best pick for that in terms of "entertainment purposes". If Pacquio is looking for another milestone on his career, he should instead pick another boxer but since he has a purpose of giving hand to the PH community who got struck by the pandemic, I think he believes McGregor can boost PPV sales.

Not really a big deal for me if this fight will happened or not. Pacquiao is serious when picking a boxer for his own reason. For now, his charitable work will be his priority why this fight should happen.