Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Quote from: tranthidung on Today at 06:36:30 AM

Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com
Price: is low of daily price
Bitcoin pumps: % changes between 2 consecutive days >= 5%
Bitcoin dump: % changes between 2 consecutive days <= -5%

Bitcoin does perform stronger than altcoins. And no matter what bitcoin pumps or dumps, altcoins have negative changes (%) and the severity is worse than bitcoin changes. When bitcoin pumps, altcoins increase less than bitcoin.

Overall

Easily to see that the time-series of pclowBTC is almost overlapped and covered by others. It means generally the percent changes of BTC are smaller than of altcoins (in this dataset).

For specific coin

Over specific years (I choose 3 years: 2018, 2019 and 2020)

Raw data for 2020
Pumps

Code:

variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pclowBTC | 14 8.900714 5.012295 7.455 6.34 9.6 5.11 24.79
pclowDASH | 14 8.879286 9.402313 6.565 3.11 9.87 -1.29 31.02
pclowETH | 14 8.196429 7.176675 5.13 4.2 11.84 -.63 28.61
pclowLTC | 14 8.193571 7.878448 6.705 3.81 8.81 1.24 33.12
pclowXLM | 14 5.93 7.630899 4.8 1.81 7.26 -1.35 29.71
pclowXMR | 14 8.44 8.202507 6.62 3.94 9.6 -.16 33.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dumps

Code:

variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pclowBTC | 11 -11.15818 9.042039 -8.83 -12.37 -5.39 -36.41 -5.12
pclowDASH | 11 -14.24091 8.896276 -13.65 -19.06 -5.91 -33.95 -4.48
pclowETH | 11 -12.79091 9.679633 -10.37 -14.41 -7.03 -39.68 -4.15
pclowLTC | 11 -13.55909 8.184129 -13.92 -16.52 -8.5 -33.76 -4.21
pclowXLM | 11 -12.02273 7.210211 -11.6 -14.65 -5.91 -30.62 -5.33
pclowXMR | 11 -13.01364 8.834594 -11.82 -16.65 -6.36 -35.98 -5.97
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Code:

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| date pclowBTC pclowETH pclowD~H pclowXMR pclowXLM pclowLTC pc_cat |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
1. | 04jan2020 5.71 5.18 7.44 9.6 1.81 6.29 BTC pump |
2. | 15jan2020 6.34 11.84 27.36 7.35 6.19 13.04 BTC pump |
3. | 14mar2020 24.79 28.61 31.02 33.3 29.71 33.12 BTC pump |
4. | 17mar2020 8.89 4.98 8.13 12.78 7.64 7.12 BTC pump |
5. | 20mar2020 12.01 6.87 11.7 4.45 3.08 5.58 BTC pump |
6. | 24mar2020 10.82 9.27 9.67 14.22 7.26 8.05 BTC pump |
7. | 31mar2020 7.98 5.08 5.69 5.89 5.72 3.81 BTC pump |
8. | 02apr2020 6.35 4.62 4.17 3.2 3.17 4.81 BTC pump |
9. | 07apr2020 5.22 14.39 5.46 3.94 9.66 8.81 BTC pump |
10. | 17apr2020 7.55 12.9 9.87 8.18 7.07 8.81 BTC pump |
11. | 30apr2020 9.6 4.2 -1.29 -.16 -1.18 1.24 BTC pump |
12. | 08may2020 6.88 3.35 .79 8.99 .36 3.55 BTC pump |
13. | 14may2020 5.11 4.09 1.19 2.05 -1.35 1.26 BTC pump |
14. | 28jul2020 7.36 -.63 3.11 4.37 3.88 9.22 BTC pump |
|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
15. | 26feb2020 -6.45 -10.37 -15.62 -8.44 -11.59 -16.4 BTC dump |
16. | 08mar2020 -8.83 -15.55 -15.32 -13.91 -13.11 -14.5 BTC dump |
17. | 09mar2020 -5.12 -4.15 -7.8 -6.54 -5.6 -8.6 BTC dump |
18. | 12mar2020 -36.41 -39.68 -33.95 -35.98 -30.62 -33.76 BTC dump |
19. | 13mar2020 -15.5 -14.41 -23.33 -18.92 -14.8 -16.52 BTC dump |
20. | 16mar2020 -11.49 -13.69 -13.65 -16.65 -11.6 -10.5 BTC dump |
21. | 28mar2020 -5.39 -5.21 -5.91 -6.27 -5.33 -4.6 BTC dump |
22. | 10apr2020 -5.25 -7.79 -4.48 -6.36 -6.21 -8.5 BTC dump |
23. | 10may2020 -12.37 -12.61 -12.48 -11.82 -14.65 -13.92 BTC dump |
24. | 21may2020 -6.11 -7.03 -5.05 -5.97 -5.91 -4.21 BTC dump |
25. | 03sep2020 -9.82 -10.21 -19.06 -12.29 -12.83 -17.64 BTC dump |
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Correction for my past work. It is a shame that today when I played with data again, I found a bug in my code for past update. I am sorry for this. You can ignore that post (data validity is unknow, I took from another source).

The newest one is correct and data validity is good (from coinmarketcap.com). So I am sorry again and enjoy today update.

Quote from: tranthidung on October 12, 2020, 05:27:44 PM

Yearly low price of bitcoin:

Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
Observed period: 29/4/2013 - 06/10/2020.
min_l: Min of daily low price for each specific year.
percent_change: % of changes in min_l between 2 consecutive years

During the period of almost 8 years, the lowest yearly price of BTC has 7 years with increase (positive in percent_change), only has 1 year with a fall (negative in percent_change, at -40.7 % in 2015).
Min and max percent of increase is 6.3% (2019) and 341.5% (2014).
Also, see median_l, p25l and p75l (in statistics and in chart) to see the continuous growth (yearly low price) of bitcoin
Make double check with another dataset from 2010 to 2020 that I made in WO

Raw results:

Code:

+---------------------------------+
| year min_l percent_change |
|---------------------------------|
1. | 2013 65.53 . |
2. | 2014 289.3 341.48 |
3. | 2015 171.51 -40.72 |
4. | 2016 354.91 106.93 |
5. | 2017 755.76 112.94 |
|---------------------------------|
6. | 2018 3191.3 322.26 |
7. | 2019 3391.02 6.26 |
8. | 2020 4106.98 21.11 |
+---------------------------------+

Quote from: 20kevin20 on October 12, 2020, 05:44:47 PM

If you take 2015 out of the equation and the short timespan during which BTC has been past $12k, all you're left with is mostly pure profit and every year has been a new high. Even if you had invested once per month ever since BTC was >$12k, you still would've had a profit today as the price crashed a few times.

@20kevin20,

I used medians to exclude all extreme values or outliers from pumps or dumps. Please look at the details in OP. Here, I give you charts only. The first chart is very very bullish. Cheesy