Thats 36% for Trump win which is probably overdone because yes we know in basic poll terms he is lacking in popular vote but its probably the diversity of states in which he scores a victory which is more important.   Trump is certainly going to lose big in some highly populated areas and states but somehow if he gains enough wins elsewhere it could return him overall as successful.   50/50 is how I'd rate odds in a cautious way normally the sitting president might be said to have 60/40 advantage but this year being a fallout and we presumed a negative for Trump then at least it would seem even odds towards the challenger.   Biden returning as a vice now presidential contender might be also the name recognition and base line support that seals the deal, he has that unique advantage this time and I'm wondering how often thats been the case before for comparison mid term.
   My bet is already off which was that Trump gets covid and has to step down in the electoral race, that didnt happen.   I took that bet because the odds for Pence taking the reigns were giant, but a good outlier imo