I look at all the material that has Biden winning but then I look outside at all the Trump people. I haven't seen people gather for Biden anywhere here. I believe Florida at least is going to Trump.
There are some houses with Biden/Harris stuff on them though. It's not as one sided as 2016.
The real question is who do you think is more qualified to figure out the opinion of 50-100 million people? Polling companies with a proven track record over thousands of elections - some spanning more than 5 decades, or you when you look outside?