Regarding the current Biden/Trump situation, I would bet on Trump because the chances for either of them winning are closer to 50/50, while the outcome odds for Trump are above 2.0 everywhere.
50/50? Why do you think that?
The first election was very tight and he disappointed many of his voters during its mandate.
Gotta side with @Saint-loup here, latest polls from
FiveThirtyEight are pointing to a Biden Win @+8.5. Majority of the swing states are in Blue right now.