Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.
I don't see it.
I'm simply accounting for the value that goes into the market and what happens to it. None of what you write addresses this, yet we're forced to do it for bookkeeping purposes. We have revenue, therefore there's a cost. The question therefore arises of who bears that cost and where ? It doesn't matter whether the coins get sold or not, it's still the same bookkeeping cost impact because debits must equal credits.
So you're basically saying that 2+2 can equal 8. That Dash can take pure revenue from the chain at zero difficulty week after week and still expect its capital value to grow while all the other mined chains have to hash out every block. Do you realise how ludicrous that sounds to any serious new investor who sits down to do some due diligence appraisal of Dash as a long term investment ? Even our utility doesn't grow - not because we lack features but (ironically) because we're such a poor store of value.
At a price of $3500, masternodes are at a pure profit of $4500 per week - for performing no economic work. Margins like that simply get repriced into oblivion in no time which is what happened at the last ATH which lasted only a matter of days. Good luck in getting out inside that window the next time it comes around.
There's got to be some fundamentals of the coin economics that square for the thing to be investible. It isn't enough just to talk about market cycles because there's far more Peercoins and Bitshares out there then Litecoins and Moneros. If BCH blows up the natural successor is Litecoin, not Dash because we're talking about store of value not utility. The chain doesn't have to be useful to be a good store of value but it does have to be a good store of value to be investible. The only thing you have in that regard in the absence of mass adoption, is mining.
P.S.
You say Litecoin has completed a bear market cycle and Dash has yet to complete its. Well Litcoin is at 1/10th of its ATH against Bitcoin and never went below it. Dash is ALREADY at 1/27th. So we're getting kind of late in pulling out of the nosedive. We'd need to dig ourselves out of the ground first.
You overstate the impact of masternode rewards vs the amount of money that will (and has now started) to flood the crypto markets. First BTC, then to the alts once BTC matches its previous ATH of $20K. BTC has done this twice now, I'm betting it will do it a 3rd time.
Now, let's look at PPC, XMR, LTC and Dash and use monthly (candle bodies, not wicks) highs and lows.
PPC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $9*, Dec 2016 = $0.16, Dec 2017-Feb 2018 = $4.42, Nov 2019 = $0.16
XMR: Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $330, Jan-Feb 2019 = $42
LTC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $41, Apr 2015 = $1.50, Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $230, Dec 2018-Jan 2019 = $29.70
DASH: Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $1021, Dec 2019-Jan 2020 = $40
* couldn't 100% verify the $9 for PPC as all exchanges that traded PPC back then are gone...
Many coins bottomed out beginning of 2019, Dash was roughly $66 then and is different in that it hit a new low beginning of 2020 at $40 before exploding to the upside over 3x almost alone among all the cryptos. Dash does have a habit of doing this, moreso than other cryptos. I do think the slowness of Dash hitting its low is because of the incentives for masternodes to hold longer therefore it took longer for capitulation.
I still find it ridiculous for you to compare DASH to PPC as PPC ceased all development for a number of years and yet still rallied to hit 50% of its previous ATH. So, it shouldn't be a stretch to think that absolute worst case scenario is Dash hits $500 on a closed monthly candle in the next bull run. But Dash has not ceased development, has a number of institutional investors involved, has more exposure than the majority of other alts and has this new thing called Dash Platform coming out.
Once the alts hit their bottom vs BTC, it is quite logical to expect alts to rally in a major way to the upside. It's happened twice now, what has substantially changed to stop it from happening the 3rd time? What will prevent money from being poured into Dash while at the same time it's being poured into LTC and XMR? And let's assume that LTC and XMR rally first, this is very possible... do you think those holders won't diversify into a cheap Dash if it hasn't rallied yet? When Dash first rallied in Feb 2017, you could buy 21 LTC for 1 Dash and 8 XMR for 1 Dash... with such a huge divergence in relative prices only a couple of things can happen, Dash price goes down to correct the ratio or LTC and XMR's price rises to correct the ratio. The latter happened because the bull market had started.
Dash's last rally at the beginning of this year occurred in the bear market, so Dash corrected to the downside.
Now, I've made this point before but it should be repeated. Mining is a clever way to create an arm's race to drive up number of competitors and it works to a certain extent until there are more options to acquire coin other than from a miner. XMR is almost fully mined, maybe already in tail emission for block rewards so I reject the notion that the few coins mined a month would drastically push up the price vs the coins put up for sale mined years ago for much less. Inflation rate has more effect on price. Dash's inflation is still high, if not the highest, among the top mined coins. The more new supply, the more new demand you need to offset that. You are not going to get that in a bear market.
On another note, PPC has started development again over the last year or so... I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $20 at least.