"Now, for the inner investor in us all. What happens after this inflation period? The block reward will lower by 6x(1130) the average(6800) for
the next two years, that's a 6x or more increase in value. If you managed to properly reinvest your Credits into the latter periods when the block rewards would
be especially high, you could be looking at a 13x return. Subsequently we will see a halving to around ¤560 and then finally ¤280. We're talking about a
potential outcome of 52x, and that's if factors such as difficulty and services don't rise, but we've clearly done our best to ensure that. With that said,
the previous figures are likely child's play compared to what the future holds. In summation, mining longer will not only bring you more wealth in
Credits but it will increase your return margin as early mined Credits are more likely to become inflated over the 6 month period."
I think we're all forgetting the potential of day trading. Simply sell before the increase and buy back. We figured more people would catch on to this strategy. Mainly this system removes silly pump n dumpers and hoarders. So be smart people, trade it up.
"Simply sell before the increase and buy back."
A simple supply/demand curve supports that approach - block reward doubling increases supply ahead of demand and the price falls. Unfortunately, crypto trading doesn't follow logic, because it's vulnerable to pumping and dumping and the "I need to get in on this" thinking that accompanies it.
More coins = more coins to utilize in pump and dump schemes, so when the block reward doubles, the value is more likely to go up than to go down. By "selling before an increase and buying back," you're more likely to lose money than gain it.
The fact is, the large majority of miners are going to wait until a much higher or the highest block reward, assuming anyone still remembers the coin in 4-6 months. In the meantime, current miners only have the hope that it will someday get big to continue mining it. That hope will wear thin if a few block double dates pass and the price doesn't rise. If nothing changes, I guarantee you that no one will be mining this coin in a month. Six months in the crypto world is eons.
I don't see the logic in this, the number of coins is arbitrary. With a higher supply/income the value per Credit will decrease. Of course, there will always be risk in day trading but I don't see how it would deviate heavily from the expected outcome unless Credits gets pumped.