assuming bitcoin does the same trick after each halving we can expect a top at 850k or a top at 200k?
imagine 2021 being the year covid was defeated and bitcoin mooning a few hundred k $ per coin. the whole world will turn into a big party.
Each halving has a smaller effect on coin creation, so don't expect this to be as big a rally as before. Breaking $200k would definitely change my life, so won't mind it at all if I'm wrong!
you are right about the diminishing effect of the halvings. on the other hand consider that we never had a millionaire/billionaire/corporate treasurer of multibillion companies FOMO during a bitcoin run-up. a handful of billionaires could
buy all the bitcoins. there are 2800 known billionaires and they own 8 trillion USD, which is 50x the worth of all bitcoins. as long as this is the case I believe the magnitude of run-ups is unpredictable in a way that not even a trend can be established. and there is also the concept of escape velocity. one of those future run-ups will not be like the usual bubble burst multiyear suffering. it will just keep rising and reach a level where it is not falling down anymore.