The only decisive point in determining this contest is #3. I understand that sportsbooks need the ability to exercise discretion in cases where the results of a contest are contentious, but that discretion should be applied fairly and uniformly. Stake is paying out Biden bets on the basis that the electoral college will elect him. That should be the only criteria necessary to pay out Trump bets.
Note that I have no wager on this contest with this sportsbook. I'm just a little surprised to see this from Stake.
It should be the only one that counts.
The bet that was made was : the next President of the United States of America
So if Donald Trump gets his 270 Electoral Votes and becomes the next President, the Trump Bets should be paid out.
All markets that I've seen grade on the expected result of the Electoral College, and not the actual result. In the event of a faithless elector(s) causing a different president to be elected, sportsbooks would still grade the "real" winner as such.
It's definitely very interesting that Stake is grading a possible Trump win differently than the original bet. It opens them up to additional risk, such as a projected Biden win that ends up electing Trump via faithless elector(s). A normal Trump bet would not be graded as a win under those circumstances.
4. There is no requirement for a losing presidential candidate to secede in a US Presidential election.
I think the meaning behind this is that they would expect Biden to not challenge the result similar to what Trump is doing now.