well, it's hard to tell.
Pump and dumps don't have to be orchestrated by the project team itself.
usually with good projects it's done by 3rd parties, like marketing firms who were paid in these coins, or exchanges.
For example, one project i'm following paid bitcoin.com exchange listing in their coin, and they dumped their bags few days ago and downed the price by 95%.
That is indeed like that most of the time.
If a project plans to pump and dump in the first place it will be marked as ponzi scheme afterwards I believe.
So its really hard to see which project will be profitable for regular investor beforehand.