Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Still confused why bitcoin is so bullish?
by
Emily Perkins
on 12/11/2020, 10:20:32 UTC

Agree with all your reasons but would like to add one more which is scarcity of bitcoin which makes it unique asset. I believe this drives the price higher too.


You wanna know the real reason?

0 - printers doing brrrr to buy treasury bonds
1- this makes negative real yields on bonds (this push money down)
As of 2017, the size of the worldwide bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated at $100.13 trillion, 100 trillion is looking for alternative
2- interest on term deposits in banks are close to zero (this push money down)
3- corporate bonds risk of not being paid is bigger than expected ROI (this push money down)
4- inflation and fear of inflation getting bigger and bigger forces people to look for assets that will protect their funds from inflation by accepting even greater and greater risk (because safe assets guarantee a real loss (expected profit - inflation))
5- this push money to real estate makes them super expensive (3-4 % real profit from renting is still not enough to cover inflation)
6- this push money deeper and deeper (stocks and dividend profits) but they are cosmically overvalued and dividends are very small
As of December 31, 2019, the total market capitalization of all stocks worldwide was approximately US$70.75 trillion. so 70 trillion is looking for alternative
7- this push money deeper into very high risk assets (bitcoin) - the profit opportunity is usually better than the loss guarantee - and bitcoin is worth only 300 bil $ so even a small fraction moved from above assets will cause huge pump here.

This pump is not caused by Paypal or halving. Who TF takes care about paypal? We have 100000000 ways to buy crypto. Paypal is only another one. Pump is caused by panicked investors searching for good place to hide from inflation.

“The United States printed more money in June than in the first two centuries after its founding,” Morehead wrote. “Last month the U.S. budget deficit — $864 billion — was larger than the total debt incurred from 1776 through the end of 1979.”
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-printed-more-money-in-one-month-than-in-two-centuries

"In response to the coronavirus, the Federal Reserve has printed approximately $3 trillion. The total assets of the Federal Reserve as of the end of February 2020 was $4.16 trillion. By the end of July, total assets was $6.95 trillion."
https://medium.com/discourse/do-you-realize-the-massive-amount-of-money-printing-happening-due-to-the-coronavirus-pandemic-1f4347cc0404