As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.
Fair enough.
Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.
I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.
Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.
Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?
So you made all of that money after the 5% fee?
Just as a question, because I've never personally used PredictIT do they spell it out pretty clearly when buying the 'yes' or 'no' portion of the bet that they will be charging you that 5%? I feel like they don't really push it enough, and people are just told that they can make some 'free money' on this platform without taking into account the fees.
It's like the markets (I think this was one of them) where you could bet as to if Kanye would win or something along those lines. You may be able to make 5% on the 'no' side, but all of that is going to go to PredictIt anyway. Plus you're going to be further losing when it comes to credit card fees and such.