What are the odds a stimulus bill is passed during the lame duck session? I honestly have no idea.
Deutsche Bank analysts are bettering on a "roughly $750 billion fiscal package" by
Q1 next year, which means stimulus checks wouldn't hit bank accounts until then, or maybe even Q2. That's still quite a ways away.
Since people can actually receive their stimulus checks through Cash App[1], whereas I assume they can immediately purchase bitcoin immediately after receiving the money, it will probably help. The question is, how significant of an effect is it?
They can use Paypal to receive stimulus checks (and invest in crypto with the money) too.
I still think most people use traditional banks for direct deposit though, and a surprising number of people opt for paper checks. They're also starting to issue debit cards.
The data Coinbase published this past April didn't make it seem like stimulus checks had a huge effect on inflows. No matter how you figure it though, they have to be a net bullish factor.