past cycles were driven by retail fomo. retail that was trying to time the top to sell for as much fiat as possible. the game was bitcoin but it was fiat dominated. hodlers that did not sell the top had to swallow multiyear face ripping meltdowns of unrealized gains. fiat gains. hodlers that did not sell were ridiculed and laughed at. overall the price was appreciating and mostly during the 2017 cycle retail had dreams of escaping the rat race by selling the top for life changing fiat amounts.

after all retail are the regular guys. those that were never allowed to participate in pre-ipo stock sales of big tech. those that watched accredited investors become billionaires due to their privilege of investing early in big tech company pre-ipo. with bitcoin they were able to do the same. get in early and sell high, yeah that is the plan. and I know it is your plan, too. most of you want to time the top, get fiat rich, escape the hamster wheel for good. lambos are looming.

this has happened three times now and you are all conditioned to either sell the top for mountains of fiat or- with a little twist - sell the top to later buy back cheap coins to finally grab all those btc you ever dreamed of possessing. my wet dream of the next bull run is to be able to time the top, be rich and also buy back the btc later to even have more corn than ever before in addition to life changing piles of fiat. wouldn't that be nice? have your bitcoin cake and eat it too.

be careful. this next bull is not retail driven with fiat in mind. it is driven by institutional investors. their motivation is not fiat. they drown in fiat, that is not the point. their point is to invest in something that protects against a fiat meltdown. they don't invest to make more fiat, they invest to fucking escape fiat. they invest to hedge against fiat. for them, there is no top to sell btc for even more fiat. they will hold their corn.

don't expect another 80% multiyear bear after some crazy spike in btc price this time around. no weak hand fomo retail is owning the corn, but hardened financial shark professionals that noticed that fiat is a melting ice cube. in either this cycle or the next one bitcoin will reach escape velocity. price will not come back.

don't be the OG bitcoin hodler who went through all the despair and disillusional face melting bears without selling but then sell at a local top in that very cycle that was the cycle where price did never come back, turning you - a former btc boss - into a poor fiat bag holder.

if they end up with btc and you end up with tons of worthless fiat, they played you and they won and you lost.

it is not the tops that get smaller or the cycles that get longer. it is the bear markets that will diminish.

the 2020ies will be the decade of bitcoin. at the end of this decade one bitcoin will be worth a million $ (todays value). no one will believe that there was an opportunity in 2020 to buy btc for $4k.

don't sell meaningful amounts of your corn. the professionals will outplay you. their fiat supply is endless. your btc supply is not.

i was thinking of keeping 50% of stash - no matter what price. but it already feels like a stupid idea. yeah trying to buy back cheap coins to gain coins is tempting, but it is actually trading.  I hate trading. maybe I will keep 70% of stash forever, risk only 30% maybe even less.