However, the internal count is unclear to me right now. I have some slight variations in mind. Where xxxx123abcxxxx thinks we're in a [ iii ], I wonder if we're really in a [ i ]. This would suggest a major top anywhere between here and maybe $22K. I say that partly because of structure and proportion, and partly because of psychological resistance at the 2017 ATH. Anything +/- 10% of the 2017 ATH would be typical. Never can tell if it'll overshoot or undershoot. After that, one would anticipate a (likely) sharp Wave [ ii ]. That may be where we see a classic 30-40% Bitcoin bull market decline, followed by acceleration of the bull trend. Probably the dip of a lifetime.
Interested to see that count, as I'm not sure how we can be in anything other than some kind of 3 wave (iii of I or [ iii ] of [ I ] etc) if we believe we're in a bull that started just after it hit 3k in Dec '18.
I'm not convinced of that. The 2019 rally does not need to be considered impulsive, and I don't assume it is. Just because March 2020 was a higher low doesn't mean the preceding wave is an intermediate Wave (2). Complex corrections often complete with higher lows.
This is one of the things that has always bothered me about xxxx123abcxxxx's impulsive counts. I feel he often rushes Wave 4 counts, assuming a lower degree A or W wave is the entire Wave 4. Although there is no minimum time requirement for Wave 4, in my experience they strongly tends towards being significantly longer than Wave 2, with ~2x by time being fairly common.
I believe it's more likely that the post-2017 bear market lasted 2+ years, and that our Historic IV just terminated in March 2020:
If it isn't clear, I am much, much, much more bullish than xxxx123abcxxxx. I believe we are still in Intermediate Wave (1) of Primary Wave V.
I see only one major correction (jun 19 to march 20) and therefore no room for a big impulsive I wave nearing completion at 20-22k?
As you can probably tell now, I'm talking about a nested count, so a Wave i of lower degree. Wave i of Minor 3, to be specific.
Anyway, this is all very speculative. Just offering one alternative. I am very confident in the bull market scenario to new ATHs, but it can unfold in several different ways. The true count will only be clear in hindsight.