You have an interesting way to lead a discussion.
I'm basically just speculating here. But I do know many people believe in LN. Why else would there already be so many different wallets out there, some with very active development?Quote
Either fools or fans will risk their money for a profit of less than 1% per year.
If fools and fans make LN grow, I'm okay with that 
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If people use custodial services, they don't need LN.
That's not true. Any exchange, casino or random website can create their own custodial "tipping service". The great thing from making a LN custodial service is that it also works externally. BlueWallet for instance is custodial, if I make a payment to another BlueWallet user, nothing happens on the Lightning Network. But I can use the same wallet to make an external payment too. Without that, there wouldn't be any use for this wallet.