http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/10/october-3-2011-commodities-and.html

"This does not represent our position, which is based on the powerful impact of bubble psychology, rather than on supply and demand. In contrast, we would argue that for commodity price to fall a long way, and very quickly too, it is not necessary for demand to exceed supply, especially by any significant margin.

Changes in supply and demand do not typically occur rapidly, but changes in perception certainly do, and it is perception that drives markets. If the fundamentals of supply and demand were responsible for setting prices, we would not see price collapses over a matter of months, yet this is exactly what we saw in 2008."

this is the type of non linear thinking i employ.