1st part - We debated this---as to what kind of number to put in for potential returns on investment...
My point was that the original statement was nonsense. Saying that if you know about EMAs and MACD then you'll know what the returns look like is exactly analogous to saying that if you know what an average temperature looks like, then you'll know how many cherry tomatoes I'm going to grow this year. Since EMAs are statistical properties of markets, and average temperatures are statistical properties of weather, then yes, sure, they have some bearing on investment returns and cherry tomato returns, respectively, but to say that one somehow sheds light on predictions of the other is pure nonsense.
2nd part - The 25% isn't exactly short/hedged against BTC but more of a diversification.
On the contrary, selling BTC to buy fiat -- regardless of whether that's to invest in equities, options, fiat-denominated debt, or cherry tomatoes -- is
exactly what it means to take a short a position in BTC.
Sniff test failed, utterly and completely.