Quick update for the day on the 1hr, price broke down from the short-term bull-flag as anticipated. Price is finding some buyers at the local VPVR point of control, but otherwise has now closed below the mid-level of the bull channel signalling short-term weakness. Next level of support is in the $17K range; the 200 MA, 0.786 fib retracement and support trend-line:
Price obviously didn't come back down to re-test parallel channel, which now more or less invalidates the pattern minus the resistance trend-line target overhead. Instead there is yet another support trend-line as price goes further parabolic towards all time highs. My stop loss has therefore now been moved up to $17.57K, with the intention to move this to $18K probably tomorrow or after a test of $20K. I'm still under the impression a 25-35% correction will occur, after a dump exceeds 10% below local top, which is why I've been moving the sell order higher over the weeks instead of taking trading profits yet.
Zooming out to the bigger picture on the same 4hr time-frame and using the MA Ribbon, it now seems clearer than every that a break below the ribbon could lead to a larger correction. Whether this happens from current prices, $20K or nearer $25K remains to be seen, but hence moving my stop loss higher.
Since $10K levels, price only ever wicked a % or two below the MA ribbon all the way up to the new $19.4K high. I'll therefore now be using this indicator to move my stop loss higher, but leaving a bit of room of price to wick below the ribbon, find support, and continue moving higher, as has been the case for over 6 weeks now.
The trend is your friend, until it becomes your enemy
