Nearly all the following I referenced in my previous post (almost more relevant now than yesterday), but I'll analysis exactly what's happening now my stop has been triggered...
Stop loss now moved up to just under $18K. I'm very much still under the impression that if price breaks below the MA ribbon on the 4hr, price will fall considerably lower.
Big moves. Price finally broken down from $19.5K, somewhat as anticipated in yesterdays post. One target from the ascending wedge break-down is around $16.8K, while price has so far reached the low $17.1K:
Based on the 4hr MA Ribbon, the parabolic structure has been broken. While there is support below, it forces me call the local top $19.5K for now:
The 4hr RSI also confirms this trend break, with the price strength now closing in <40 bearish territory for the first time since early October:
As previous warned, price has been overbought on the Daily time-frame for around a month. The good news is, laddering into the dip is now looking possible:
As also referenced, the Weekly RSI was at critical 85 overbought, exactly where price corrected from in late 2016, prior to breaking ATH:
The TD 9 Sell Signal is now starting to look like a sell signal, with currently the first red candle after many weeks of upside:
While I'm satisfied with my $18K exit, I wouldn't be surprised to see price re-test $18.6K before moving lower towards a minimum of $16K (-18% from local top). This is where the volume point of control lies, as well as around the 21 & 500 MAs on the 4hr chart, that are now starting to slope downwards in bearish fashion.
TL:DR: I'm not expecting this to be the dip bought up like previous times, but instead a dead cat bounce back to resisitance before lower levels.